Summary
◦ In accordance with the decision of the Constitutional Court of Korea, the National Assembly of Korea is required, by February 2026, to establish Korea’s long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction pathway for the period 2031–2049 at a level that can “account for cumulative emissions while ensuring progress in emission reductions.” To this end, Korea must determine a “carbon budget, which could serve as a reference for considering cumulative emissions” based on scientific facts and international standards.
◦ With regard to the 1.5°C global reduction pathways proposed by the IPCC and recognized by the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), this study quantifies Korea’s carbon budget using a “Composite Fair Share Approach,” which incorporates individual equity principles — namely, responsibility, capability, equality, and the right to development — grounded in international standards, including the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) principle under the Paris Agreement.
◦ The maximum carbon budget for the Republic of Korea, estimated using the Composite Fair Share Approach, is 8.74 GtCO₂ (as of 2020). This estimate reflects (1) the application of principle-specific weights (with the highest weight assigned to responsibility) derived from a survey of domestic experts on individual equity principles, and (2) the use of Korea’s share of cumulative emissions since 1850 as the indicator for responsibility.
◦ Under Korea’s current 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Carbon Neutrality Framework Plan, approximately 70% (6.14 GtCO₂) of this carbon budget is projected to be consumed by 2030. If the 2035 NDC were to be set under a linear reduction pathway (a 55% reduction from 2018 total emissions), approximately 90% (7.9 GtCO₂) of the carbon budget would be consumed by 2035. If the entire long-term reduction pathway were to adopt the linear reduction pathway, cumulative emissions by 2050 would exceed 10 GtCO₂, resulting in a substantial overshoot of the carbon budget.
◦ To align the long-term reduction pathway with the carbon budget, Korea would need to reduce emissions by 66.7% by 2035, 85% by 2040, and 95% by 2045, relative to 2018 total emissions levels. Alternatively, if the carbon neutrality target year were advanced from 2050 to 2045, the carbon budget overshoot could be limited to approximately 0.3 GtCO₂, significantly narrowing the gap with Korea’s fair share contribution toward achieving the temperature goal under the Paris Agreement.
◦ Establishing Korea’s carbon budget is, as outlined above, essential for critically assessing and comparing the cumulative emissions of various long-term reduction pathway scenarios. Accordingly, the National Assembly and the government must promptly determine Korea’s carbon budget based on scientific facts and international standards, and set long-term reduction targets aligned with Korea’s fair share contribution to the global mitigation effort to achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, as mandated by the Constitutional Court’s decision, without shifting excessive burdens to the future.
◦ Furthermore, as the 2035 NDC will serve as the most critical component of the long-term reduction pathway in terms of cumulative emissions, the government must ensure that it reflects the carbon budget, beginning with the 2035 NDC, which is scheduled for submission to the UN by September 2025. In addition, the government’s submission of the 2035 NDC and the National Assembly’s deliberations on improving the legislation governing the long-term reduction pathway should proceed in close coordination.
For the full report, please find the attached file.
Summary
◦ In accordance with the decision of the Constitutional Court of Korea, the National Assembly of Korea is required, by February 2026, to establish Korea’s long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction pathway for the period 2031–2049 at a level that can “account for cumulative emissions while ensuring progress in emission reductions.” To this end, Korea must determine a “carbon budget, which could serve as a reference for considering cumulative emissions” based on scientific facts and international standards.
◦ With regard to the 1.5°C global reduction pathways proposed by the IPCC and recognized by the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), this study quantifies Korea’s carbon budget using a “Composite Fair Share Approach,” which incorporates individual equity principles — namely, responsibility, capability, equality, and the right to development — grounded in international standards, including the Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC) principle under the Paris Agreement.
◦ The maximum carbon budget for the Republic of Korea, estimated using the Composite Fair Share Approach, is 8.74 GtCO₂ (as of 2020). This estimate reflects (1) the application of principle-specific weights (with the highest weight assigned to responsibility) derived from a survey of domestic experts on individual equity principles, and (2) the use of Korea’s share of cumulative emissions since 1850 as the indicator for responsibility.
◦ Under Korea’s current 2030 Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and Carbon Neutrality Framework Plan, approximately 70% (6.14 GtCO₂) of this carbon budget is projected to be consumed by 2030. If the 2035 NDC were to be set under a linear reduction pathway (a 55% reduction from 2018 total emissions), approximately 90% (7.9 GtCO₂) of the carbon budget would be consumed by 2035. If the entire long-term reduction pathway were to adopt the linear reduction pathway, cumulative emissions by 2050 would exceed 10 GtCO₂, resulting in a substantial overshoot of the carbon budget.
◦ To align the long-term reduction pathway with the carbon budget, Korea would need to reduce emissions by 66.7% by 2035, 85% by 2040, and 95% by 2045, relative to 2018 total emissions levels. Alternatively, if the carbon neutrality target year were advanced from 2050 to 2045, the carbon budget overshoot could be limited to approximately 0.3 GtCO₂, significantly narrowing the gap with Korea’s fair share contribution toward achieving the temperature goal under the Paris Agreement.
◦ Establishing Korea’s carbon budget is, as outlined above, essential for critically assessing and comparing the cumulative emissions of various long-term reduction pathway scenarios. Accordingly, the National Assembly and the government must promptly determine Korea’s carbon budget based on scientific facts and international standards, and set long-term reduction targets aligned with Korea’s fair share contribution to the global mitigation effort to achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, as mandated by the Constitutional Court’s decision, without shifting excessive burdens to the future.
◦ Furthermore, as the 2035 NDC will serve as the most critical component of the long-term reduction pathway in terms of cumulative emissions, the government must ensure that it reflects the carbon budget, beginning with the 2035 NDC, which is scheduled for submission to the UN by September 2025. In addition, the government’s submission of the 2035 NDC and the National Assembly’s deliberations on improving the legislation governing the long-term reduction pathway should proceed in close coordination.
For the full report, please find the attached file.